Stop Chasing the Biggest Docket. Start Modeling the Best Per-Claimant Net.

I talk to a lot of plaintiff firms evaluating new mass arbitration categories. BIPA. VPPA. CIPA wiretap claims. Junk fees. Auto-renewal violations. Data breach. The conversation almost always starts the same way: "We think there are 50,000 eligible claimants, the per-claimant recovery could be $3,000 to $8,000, and we want to move fast."

That is a fine place to start. It is a terrible place to stop.

The firms I see building durable, profitable mass arb practices in 2026 are not the ones chasing the fattest docket or the splashiest statutory damages number. They are the ones who score every opportunity by a single metric before they spend a dollar on leads: expected net per completed claimant after the full cost stack.

That number is what actually determines whether a matter prints money or quietly bleeds it. And most firms never calculate it.

The Full Cost Stack Nobody Models

Here is how most firms evaluate a new mass arb opportunity. They estimate the claimant pool. They estimate the per-claimant recovery range. They multiply. They get a gross number that looks exciting. Then they start buying leads.

Here is what they skip:

• Acquisition cost per signed claimant: In 2026, this runs $500 to $2,000 for most consumer arb categories depending on channel, qualification complexity, and competition. Some BIPA campaigns are running under $400. Some data breach campaigns are north of $1,500. The spread matters enormously.
• Filing fees per claimant: Under AAA's mass arbitration rules, the flat initiation fee is $11,250 (claimants responsible for $3,125), plus scaled per-case administrative fees that decrease as volume rises. Under JAMS, it is a $7,500 flat filing fee with consumers paying up to $2,500, plus per-arbitrator appointment fees of $2,000 to $3,500. But if your defendant recently switched to NAM or a bespoke provider, the fee structure may look completely different, and you need to model it before you file.
• Admin and completion cost per claimant: Legacy administrators charge $20 to $25 per signed claimant. That is the line item. But the real cost is what happens when your completion rate stalls at 70% because your admin sent a notice, mailed a postcard, and called it a day. Every claimant who does not complete is sunk acquisition cost with zero return.
• Post-signing attrition: Between 15% and 30% of signed claimants never become filed claimants. Documentation gaps, unresponsive signers, eligibility failures discovered after intake. That attrition inflates your real CPA by 20% to 40% and nobody accounts for it in the opportunity model.
• Time cost of capital: A matter with bellwether-and-batch clauses (increasingly common after the Cash App and ALLDATA template spread) can stretch 18 to 36 months from filing to resolution. If you are funding acquisition and filing fees up front, that is real carrying cost.

Stack all of those together and the category that looked like a $15 million opportunity at a cocktail napkin level might be a $4 million opportunity after costs, or a $1 million loss if completion stalls.

How to Score an Opportunity Before You Spend

The framework is not complicated. It just requires discipline.

1. Estimate per-claimant gross recovery. Use the low end of the range, not the high end. If statutory damages are $1,000 to $5,000, model at $1,500.
2. Subtract per-claimant acquisition cost. If you are buying leads at $50 to $100 CPL and converting 30% to 40% of qualified leads to signed claimants, your CPA is $400 to $1,000. Use your actual funnel data, not a vendor's pitch deck.
3. Subtract per-claimant filing and admin cost. Map the specific provider's fee schedule to your expected volume. A 5,000-claimant AAA filing has very different per-unit economics than a 500-claimant JAMS filing.
4. Subtract per-claimant completion cost. This is admin cost divided by your expected completion rate, not your expected filing count. If your admin charges $20 per claimant but only 75% of claimants complete, your effective completion cost per successful claimant is closer to $27.
5. Apply your attrition haircut. Reduce the claimant count by 15% to 30% for post-signing attrition. This is the number that actually hits your revenue line.
6. Discount for time. If the matter will take 24 months with bellwether rounds, discount accordingly. A dollar in 2028 is not a dollar today, especially if you are financing the acquisition spend.

What falls out is your expected net per completed claimant. That is the number you compare across opportunities. Not gross recovery. Not claimant pool size. Not the statutory damages ceiling.

Where the Math Surprises You

When you run this framework across the current opportunity landscape, a few things jump out.

BIPA and biometric privacy claims often score well because acquisition costs remain relatively low (the eligible population is large and easy to identify), statutory damages are meaningful ($1,000 to $5,000 per violation under Illinois BIPA), and the claims are straightforward enough that completion rates tend to be high. The per-claimant net after the full stack can be strong.

VPPA and CIPA wiretap/tracking claims are more varied. Some score beautifully. Others fall apart when you model the documentation requirements for proving individual "viewing" or "interception" events, which drives up both acquisition cost (more screening) and post-signing attrition (more claimants who cannot produce proof).

Junk-fee and auto-renewal/subscription claims are interesting because the per-claimant recovery is often modest ($50 to $500), but if acquisition cost is very low (simple eligibility, large affected population, minimal documentation), the net can still be positive at volume. The question is whether your admin and completion infrastructure can operate cheaply enough to make it work. At $20 to $25 per claimant in admin cost, the margins are razor-thin. At $12 per claimant, they are comfortable.

Data breach claims are the trickiest. The eligible populations are enormous, but per-claimant recovery in arbitration (as opposed to class settlement) is often uncertain, and the Wallrich v. Samsung requirement for individualized proof of assent to the arbitration clause adds a new screening layer that inflates both acquisition cost and attrition.

The Completion Variable Is the Whole Ballgame

Notice that completion rate appears in the denominator of the most important line item. A 10-percentage-point improvement in completion (say, from 75% to 85%) does not just add 10% more revenue. It also reduces your effective per-claimant cost across every line item, because your fixed costs (acquisition, filing, admin setup) are spread across more successful outcomes.

This is why the firms that model completion as a variable they can influence (through outreach cadence, channel mix, signing UX, and persistence over a 180-day window) consistently outperform the firms that treat it as a fixed assumption.

And it is why your choice of administrator is not a back-office procurement decision. It is a P&L decision that belongs in the opportunity model before you greenlight the matter.

The Scorecard

Before you chase the next wave, build a one-page scorecard for every opportunity. Five lines:

1. Per-claimant gross recovery (low-end estimate)
2. Per-claimant all-in acquisition cost (CPL divided by conversion rate, plus attrition haircut)
3. Per-claimant filing and admin cost (provider-specific, volume-adjusted)
4. Completion-adjusted net (divide by expected completion rate)
5. Time-discounted net (discount for expected matter duration)

The category with the highest number on line five is your best opportunity. It might not be the one with the biggest headline. It might not be the one your competitor just announced. But it is the one that will actually pay.